Tag: Business and finance

On their bikes

AMERICAN companies “will react and they will put pressure on the American administration to say, ‘Hey, hold on a minute. This is not good for the American economy.’” So said Cecilia Malmström, the European Union’s trade commissioner, on news that Harley-Davidson plans to move some production out of America to avoid tariffs imposed by the EU on motorcycles imported from America. Those tariffs had themselves been introduced in retaliation for American duties on steel and aluminium imports.

President Donald Trump showed no signs of absorbing this salutary lesson. In one of many splenetic tweets about Harley, he said: “If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end.” Other American firms are no doubt watching. Will any follow?

Harley is unusually vulnerable to Mr Trump’s escalating trade war. Not only have its inputs, namely metals, risen in price, but it makes a fair chunk of its sales, 16%, in Europe. It puts the cost of…Continue reading

Injecting some innovation

IN 2016, 71,000 babies were born in America after in vitro fertilisation (IVF), triple the number two decades earlier and 1.8% of all births. The share of births that are by IVF varies around the world, rising as high as 4% in Denmark, Israel and Spain. One consistent trend, however, is growth. Fertility technology is steadily improving and women are choosing to delay child-bearing, meaning more couples need medical help to conceive.

For many would-be parents the main impediment to conception is now not science but finance. Data for 2017 gathered by ICMART, an international non-profit organisation, show vast variation in prices. A single IVF attempt costs around $3,000 in Japan, $4,000 in Cameroon and up to $10,000 in Europe. In America it costs more. The countries with the highest IVF birth rates are those where taxpayers pay for treatment. (There are a few exceptions, such as Croatia, where medical tourism pushes the IVF birth rate…Continue reading

IT OFTEN arrives as you stroll from the kerb to your front door. An e-mail with a question: how many stars do you want to give your Uber driver? Rating systems like the ride-hailing firm’s are essential infrastructure in the world of digital commerce. Just about anything you might seek to buy online comes with a crowdsourced rating, from a subscription to this newspaper to a broken iPhone on eBay to, increasingly, people providing services. But people are not objects. As ratings are applied to workers it is worth considering the consequences—for rater and rated.

User-rating systems were developed in the 1990s. The web held promise as a grand bazaar, where anyone could buy from or sell to anyone else. But e-commerce platforms had to create trust. Buyers and sellers needed to believe that payment would be forthcoming, and that the product would be as described. E-tailers like Amazon and eBay adopted reputation systems, in which sellers and buyers gave feedback about transactions. Reputation scores…Continue reading

THIS should have been one of the darkest weeks in the history of General Electric (GE). The firm founded by Thomas Edison has been a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a stockmarket index comprised of leading American companies, for over a century. Alas, mismanagement and a failure to move with the times have turned the erstwhile icon of innovation into a disorganised, debt-laden mess. GE’s shares have plunged to below a quarter of their peak value in 2000. On June 26th GE was ejected from the Dow index and replaced by Walgreens Boots Alliance, a big health-care firm.

Yet on that same day a ray of sunshine also fell on GE. John Flannery, an insider known for his number-crunching skills who took over as the troubled firm’s boss last August, announced details of a much-awaited restructuring plan. Over the next couple of years GE will spin off its healthcare division and unwind its newish stake in Baker Hughes, a petroleum-services firm. He had previously confirmed the sale of…Continue reading

TWO decades ago, David Neeleman founded JetBlue Airways, promising to “bring humanity back to air travel.” It has since grown to become one of America’s largest airlines. But stories of poor service and a lack of humanity still abound in the country’s aviation industry. And so it appears that Mr Neeleman is back and preparing to launch a new airline.

Airline Weekly, a magazine, reports that Mr Neeleman, with $100m in financial backing, plans to create a new carrier called Moxy. The airline will aim to fill a niche in the American market by offering low-cost direct services between smaller airports,…Continue reading

UNTIL recently the Abraaj Group, a private-equity firm based in Dubai, was riding high. It was one of just a few such firms focused on emerging markets, and a darling of “impact investors”, who seek social or environmental returns, not just financial ones. Assets under management of $13.6bn made it the largest private-equity firm in the Middle East, and the 42nd-largest globally in 2017. Its Pakistani founder and boss, Arif Naqvi, a regular at Davos and a patron of the arts, had won awards for philanthropy. It is all the more surprising, then, that basic corporate-governance missteps led his firm to file for provisional liquidation on June 14th.

The problems began in late 2017 when four investors in its $1bn health-care fund, including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the private-sector arm of the World Bank, grew worried. Nearly $280m of $545m they had been asked for was not promptly spent on acquisitions, as is standard in the industry. Abraaj blamed delays in the…Continue reading

IN his book about the use of language, “The King’s English”, Kingsley Amis describes a tug-of-war. On one side are “berks”, careless and coarse, who would destroy the language by polluting it. On the other side are priggish “wankers”, who would destroy it by sterilisation.

The battle lines look similar in investment. The divide is not on points of grammar but on attitudes towards a handful of modish companies, known as FAANG. These stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) have been the motor of the S&P 500 (see chart). All but Apple hit record highs on June 20th. Fill your boots is the attitude of coarse stockmarket berks. FAANG makes more sense than stocks in dying industries. For the prigs, the mania for FAANG stocks is as abhorrent as a split infinitive. The high-minded investor stands apart from the herd.

In matters of grammar, the unsure often follow the sticklers. They at least have rules. But they are often too rigid. Stockmarket sticklers can similarly lead others astray. For most investors, it is often a…Continue reading

The serried ranks

FOR now, at least, when speaking of the trade dispute with America, China’s government is taking a more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger tone. That helps explain the Chinese public’s surprisingly measured views of Donald Trump, and gives the Chinese government some breathing room to consider its options.

The state media have so far taken the high ground. True, the Global Times, a chest-thumping tabloid, accused the American president of “gambling” that China will be cowed by his “capricious and obstinate attitude”. No country can isolate itself from globalisation, said the Xinhua news agency: “The wise man builds bridges, the fool builds walls.” A new Xinhua web page popped up on June 20th, tracking multilateral deals that Mr Trump has quit, including on trade, climate change and Iranian nuclear arms.

But China has yet to debate, publicly, how to handle an American president who is an avowed populist…Continue reading

THE shipping industry has encountered rough seas over the past decade. Between 1985 and 2007 trade volumes shot up at around twice the rate of global GDP but since 2012 their rate of growth has barely kept pace, leaving the industry with overcapacity. Freight rates for containers have plunged by a third since 2008. Worse may be to come. The industry does not regard as good news President Donald Trump’s announcement on June 15th of tariffs of 25% on up to $50bn of Chinese goods, which will slow trade growth further. Now a veritable hurricane of new environmental laws is about to hit.

Shipping accounts for only around 2% of global carbon emissions, but is quite dirty. Burning heavy fuel oil, the industry produces 13% of the world’s sulphur emissions and 15% of its nitrogen oxides. And by 2050 ships will be producing 17% of all carbon emissions if left unregulated, according to research by the European Union.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO), the…Continue reading

“QUANT” (quantitative) hedge funds, which craft elaborate algorithms to make trading decisions, rely on access to information. That used to mean market data, such as prices and trading volume. But some now seek an edge in novel sources. An industry has sprung up to serve them with, and help them analyse, “alternative” data, such as those gleaned from satellite images or by scraping websites. Many of these data firms have been founded by entrepreneurs, but some quant funds themselves are getting involved. Winton, a large London-based fund, is spinning off Hivemind, a data-analysis unit. A full-time management team was announced on June 18th.

For funds making macroeconomic bets by trading in, say, currencies or government bonds, real-time measures of inflation (scraped from e-commerce sites) or trade flows (from shipping data) can be better and more timely than the output of national statistics agencies. Funds trading in individual firms’ shares can infer information on sales from satellite…Continue reading