Tag: Finance and economics

AMERICA’S presidential contest offers voters a stark choice. Hillary Clinton represents continuity with the Obama administration—not a bad pitch to voters, given low unemployment, steady job growth and a recent upturn in the rate of increase of real incomes. In the opposite corner is Donald Trump, standing on a radical platform of protectionism, draconian immigration restrictions, massive defence spending and construction of a big, beautiful wall along the Mexican border. Mr Trump’s dangerous economic nationalism demands an explanation. Is he the predictable consequence of years of hardship for many Americans?

Two broad theories vie to explain Mr Trump’s ascent. One camp sees him as an inevitable backlash against economic-policy priorities that have left many Americans behind. As America and the world have grown more economically integrated, growth in household incomes has stagnated and inequality soared. The costs of freer trade were borne most acutely in Southern and Mid-Western manufacturing towns exposed to competition from cheap Chinese imports. A series of recent papers shows that the most affected labour markets have…Continue reading

Retired hurt

WHEN you consider the hundreds of billions of dollars of losses and fines that the banking industry has made or incurred over the past decade, the affair that has just ended the career of John Stumpf, the boss of Wells Fargo, may at first seem innocuous. In September Wells admitted that its retail-banking sales people had been too pushy, and agreed to pay regulators a $185m fine, a tiny sum by recent standards (Deutsche Bank is presently in negotiations to pay a fine of perhaps $5 billion to American regulators). Mr Stumpf probably thought that he had a couple more happy years to go as the head of the world’s most valuable bank.

But on October 12th, he stepped down after being roasted alive for weeks in an inferno of criticism. Wells’s transgressions have caught the public mood far more than esoteric abuses in the mortgage-backed-security market ever did. The bank admitted that its staff created up to 2m bogus accounts, without customers’ permission, in order to meet aggressive sales targets. To many Americans fed up with banks’ red tape and lousy service that seemed reckless, unforgivable and possibly…Continue reading

YOU would expect strong job growth to be accompanied by falling unemployment, but America is proving that one does not always entail the other. Over the past year, employment is up by fully 3m but the unemployment rate has stayed around 5%. In fact, a few more workers are unemployed than a year ago (see chart). The reason is that more Americans are seeking jobs. Over the past 12 months the labour-force participation rate of so-called “prime-age” workers—those between 25 and 54—is up by just under one percentage point, the fastest growth recorded since January 1989. Economists trying to spot inflation on the horizon want to know how long this trend can continue.

The recent surge in prime-age participation follows a long decline from its peak, 84.6%, scaled in January 1999. Between then and September 2015, it tumbled by an average of about a fifth of a percentage point a year. Among men, it had been falling since the mid-1960s. The long slide accelerated after the financial crisis, as laid-off workers quit the labour force in droves.

Hence the refrain of some that low unemployment is a mirage: stronger economic growth,…Continue reading

IN 1966 a medical journal identified a condition it dubbed “credit-carditis”: lower-back ache, with pain radiating down the leg—caused by a back-pocket wallet stuffed with plastic. Payment cards still inflict pain of a different sort. American merchants paid more than $40 billion to process debit- and credit-card transactions in 2015. Despite a reform by the Federal Reserve in 2011 aimed at reducing these costs, revenue from these so-called “interchange fees” has more than doubled since the financial crisis. Retailers are still in revolt; banks are still resisting. That is not surprising, since they rely on the fees for a large and growing share of their income.

American consumers favour debit and credit cards over cash by more than two to one. But this convenience comes at a cost. The seller is charged a fee for every card purchase: in America, typically 0.5% to 3% of its value. These fees are set by payment-card networks, such as Visa and MasterCard and collected by card issuers, such as Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. Some portion of these fees is borne by consumers, including those who pay by cash, in the form of higher…Continue reading

VISITORS to Lisbon, Portugal’s hilly capital, usually seek its nightlife, its sweet custard tarts (pasteis de nata) or its gothic architecture. But no guidebook could help two visitors on October 10th. The pair of analysts, from Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS), a Canadian credit-ratings agency, went to assess the creditworthiness of the Portuguese government.

Markets are waiting anxiously for October 21st, when DBRS will update its rating of Portuguese sovereign debt. Hints from DBRS have been playing havoc with the ten-year bond yield: in August a gloomy comment from Fergus McCormick, DBRS’s chief economist, saw it climb 14 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point). This week, word that DBRS was “totally comfortable” with the government’s fiscal position saw it dip by ten basis points.

This unusual attention to a little-known ratings agency is due to the eligibility rules for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative-easing scheme. The ECB will buy only sovereign debt that is rated as investment grade by at least one of four approved ratings agencies: Fitch, Moody’s,…Continue reading

ESTATE agents in China, as elsewhere in the world, are normally a smooth-talking, self-assured bunch. But Liu Zhendong, a salesman at a large development in the northern reaches of Shanghai, is afflicted by doubts. He had expected business to be solid and steady this year. Instead, it has been manic, with clients jostling to see show apartments. Some had hoped to wait for the market to cool, but capitulated and bought as prices climbed higher week after week. Flats in the area, the once-rural village of Malu, still dotted with fields and scruffy wholesale food markets, now cost 90% more than a year ago. “It feels a bit like a bubble,” he says.

Mr Liu is in good company. Even the head of the central bank’s research bureau, usually cautious in his choice of language, has said a property bubble must be stopped before it gets too big. House prices have climbed by 16% nationwide over the past year, and double or even triple that in big cities. So in the past two weeks more than 20 municipalities have tried to calm the market down—for example, by requiring higher down-payments or limiting purchases by residents of other cities.

As the past…Continue reading

IF A country’s exchange rate represents international investors’ confidence in its government’s policies, the markets have given Britain the thumbs-down. So far this year, only the Nigerian naira among major currencies has put in a worse performance.

The decline seems to be accelerating. On October 7th the pound fell from $1.26 to $1.18 against the dollar within a few minutes, with one trade reported below $1.14. The shift occurred during Asian trading, when liquidity in sterling is likely to be thinnest. The most likely explanation for the plunge lies in the action of algorithmic trades—computer programs that automatically buy and sell assets, from currencies to commodities. Such programs may be designed to sell when an asset’s price falls below a certain level. These sales can be contagious, with one program’s trades setting off the sell signals of other algorithms.

The most famous “flash crash” occurred on Wall Street in May 2010, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by almost 1,000 points in the middle of a trading day. On that occasion, the market righted itself before drifting lower in subsequent…Continue reading

ECONOMICS can seem a rather bloodless science. In its simplest models, prices elegantly balance supply and demand, magically directing individuals’ pursuit of their own self-interest towards the greater good. In the real world, humans often undermine the greater good by grabbing whatever goodies their position allows them. The best economic theorising grapples with this reality, and brings us closer to understanding the role of power relationships in human interactions. This year’s Nobel prize for economic sciences—awarded to Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmström—celebrates their study of economic power, and the tricky business of harnessing it to useful economic ends.

Behind the dull-sounding “contract theory” for which the two were recognised lies an important truth: that when people want to work together, individual self-interest must be kept under control. For a chef and a restaurant-owner to work together productively, for example, the owner must promise not to use the power he has to change the locks in order to deny the chef his share of future profit. Mr Hart, a British economist working at Harvard University, tackled power dynamics while…Continue reading

IT WAS one of the most spectacular robberies of modern times. In February thieves tried to steal nearly $1 billion from accounts held by Bangladesh Bank, the central bank, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. They were thwarted, but only after spiriting away $101m. Since then Bangladesh’s government has twice suppressed the publication of a report into the heist, most recently last month, on the ground that making it public would jeopardise efforts to retrieve from the Philippines $81m that is still missing. Interviews with officials and others in Dhaka lead to an obvious conclusion: the report will almost certainly never be made public.

The investigating panel’s remit was to establish why the central bank kept the theft secret for a month, whether bank officials were involved in it and how to avert a similar heist in future. Mohammed Farashuddin, a former central-bank governor, who led the probe and once advocated its publication, will not comment on its findings. The word in Dhaka is that the report is being buried because it exposed lapses at the central bank and implicated its officials or consultants. The government has consistently…Continue reading

AMONG the proud titans humiliated in the financial crisis of 2007-08 was GE, forced to take a government bail-out in 2008. In response it swiftly slimmed down its lending arm, GE Capital. But the regulators were still not happy. In 2013 they labelled it a “systemically important financial institution” (SIFI), ie, one big enough to pose a global risk. That imposed costly regulatory burdens and encouraged GE’s boss, Jeffrey Immelt, to announce in April 2015 that he would wind down most of GE’s finance division within three years.

In a remarkable corporate transformation, he is ahead of schedule. The disposal to Wells Fargo this week of GE’s global inventory-financing business means that GE has sold $193 billion of “ending net investment”, or ENI (an adjusted asset figure), in the past 18 months, covering more than 25 lending units.

It has taken almost a decade. But GE is, almost, an ex-bank. As Mr Immelt promised last year, it is also much simpler. It shed its SIFI status in June. Lending, in ENI terms, is down by 85% from its peak in 2008 (see chart) and now focuses on its core industrial businesses. Its reliance…Continue reading