Economía

THE political shock of Brexit and of the election of Donald Trump have led to new interest in the problem posed by regional inequality. Both shocks drew support from places to which recent economic trends have not been especially kind, and both were reactions, at least in part, against the economic success enjoyed by elites concentrated in a relatively small number of rich metropolitan areas. Even economists, whose «nihilism…about what we can do to help struggling places in the U.S. is, quite frankly, strange» (in the words of Adam Ozimek) have taken to reconsidering their priors on the issue. Myself included; as I noted recently:

The economic literature is pretty clear that moving people from low productivity places to high productivity places is very good for both the people that move and the economy as a whole. It’s also pretty clear that place-based policies designed to rejuvenate regions which have lost their economic reason for being tend not to work very well. And one logical…Continue reading

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El consumidor medio ha pagado un total de 68,84 euros por el recibo de la luz en noviembre, frente a los 67,12 euros de octubre. Leer

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El consejo de administración aborda hoy el proceso de sucesión que concluirá en el primer trimestre de 2017

Los impuestos que recaen sobre las familias (IRPF e IVA) han aumentado desde que estalló la crisis mientras que el de sociedades se mantiene estable

THE death of the long bull market in bonds has been called many times in recent years. Such a consummation is devoutly wished for by those who think the global economy will never get back to health until short- and long-term interest rates return to more normal levels.

Following the election of Donald Trump as American president, the funeral rites are being read again. The yield on the ten-year Treasury bond jumped from 1.73% (while the votes were being counted) to 2.36% at one stage; the yield on the two-year bond rose from 0.78% to 1.12%. (Bond prices fall as yields rise.)

The rationale for the shift is the belief that Mr Trump will push through a fiscal stimulus, in the form of tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Not only will that boost the American economy but it will allow the Federal Reserve to return monetary policy to more “normal” levels by pushing up rates from the current 0.5%. It could also lead to higher inflation in the medium term. Forecasts for American inflation in the early 2020s can be derived from the bond market. In July, they pointed to 1.4%; now they imply 2.1%. All three factors—faster…Continue reading

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SUPPOSE that one day the government of a large and fast-growing economy became convinced that its highest priority was to purge the country of black-economy millionaires hoarding piles of illicit cash. Seeking popular approval, it sent the printing presses into overdrive, hoping to inflate away the value of these secret piles of wealth. It worked: rising prices struck a blow against the undeserving rich, and by egging on others to deposit their money in banks (where it could at least earn interest), the shadow economy shrank. The government could plough the newly created money into tax breaks and public-works schemes.

Critics, rightly, would stand aghast. Inflation would affect everyone who held cash, law-abiding or not. Much of the wealth of those enriched by the black economy would be insulated, because lots of their lucre is held not in cash but in property, gold or jewellery. Such heavy-handed measures could undermine the credibility of important government institutions. Fear that they might be used again in future could weaken confidence in the currency as a store of value—paving the way for some broader institutional failure, like hyperinflation….Continue reading