Noticias

La falta de concreción del programa podría afectar a tratados internacionales y hacer caer el PIB de EEUU

La probabilidad de que aumente los tipos de interés en diciembre se reducen al 42% tras la victoria del republicano

La eurozona crecerá un1,7% en 2016 y el 1,5% en 2017, con la deuda y el paro aún muy elevados

La agencia de calificación advierte de que la llegada del republicano Donald Trump a la Casa Blanca afectará principalmente a cinco sectores de la economía estadounidense: sanidad, comercio internacional, regulación financiera, inmigración e impuestos a empresas. Leer

El mercado estadounidense sube levemente y arrastra a los índices del Viejo Continente al verde

FOR the second time this year, investors have been hit by a political shock: first, the Brexit referendum; now, Donald Trump’s election victory. And the reaction has been very similar; a knee-jerk sell-off followed by a pause to consider whether there might be some profitable opportunities after all.

As election night unfolded, markets moved pretty much as they had during the campaign when Mr Trump surged in the polls. Equities fell, Treasury bonds rose in price (causing yields to fall) and the Mexican peso took a battering. The futures contract on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 800 points at one stage. Asia followed suit with widespread declines: the Japanese stockmarket dropped by 4.6%. The Mexican peso dived to a new low of nearly 20.8 to the dollar. Gold gained ground, as if often does when investors are nervous.

But the nature of the financial markets is that sharp moves bring out the bargain-hunters. In this respect, the optimists were helped by a fairly emollient acceptance speech from Mr Trump and the very vagueness of his policy proposals. As Fathom Consulting, an economic research group, put it,…Continue reading

GOLD is Donald Trump’s favourite metal. The taps on his private jet are 24-karat gold-plated. His $100 vodka is adorned with a golden “T”. He even hankers after the gold standard. He must have found it gratifying, therefore, that gold soared to its highest price since Brexit after his overnight victory in America’s presidential election. But copper and industrial metals also rallied. They tell a similar story: prepare for reflation.

Gold is both a haven and a hedge against inflation. Initially, its rally appeared to be a rush for safety. The dollar and stockmarkets plunged as Mr Trump headed closer to victory, pushing panic-driven flows into the yellow metal. It pared gains from a high above $1,330 an ounce to below $1,300 as other markets took heart when the president-elect, in his victory speech, promised to double American growth and rebuild the country’s infrastructure. But gold bugs remain bullish because Mr Trump is likely to expand the fiscal deficit, and the uncertainty over the implications of his election may make it harder for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Fiscal expansion and continued monetary looseness are both…Continue reading

El mercado estadounidense sube levemente y arrastra a los índices del Viejo Continente al verde

La Bolsa estadounidense arranca muy plana, frente a las pérdidas de Europa. Los valores refugio como el oro suben

FROM late January, Donald Trump will have all the authority of the American executive, and the support of a unified Republican Congress, behind him. He will, therefore, be in a position to deliver profound and lasting change. The near-term economic effect of a Trump presidency is perhaps not of foremost concern to vulnerable racial and religious minorities in America, or to nervous Nato allies in eastern Europe. But the economic consequences of Mr Trump’s presidency could be enormous, and costly.

In the short run, the market reaction will receive most attention. Mr Trump will not be president until early in 2017, and so it falls to markets to anticipate, and price in, expected policy changes. Stockmarkets are set to open down today, and the election could presage a longer slump if investors feel that the uncertainty generated by Mr Trump’s victory will harm growth and corporate profits. But volatility, rather than a bear market, might be the more probable outcome, given the lack of clarity as to what Mr Trump will prioritise in office. Bond prices will probably wobble a lot as markets seek insurance against risk. Normally, American bonds are the world’s great safe haven….Continue reading