Noticias
Irrational tossers
THERE are few sure things in investing. But the chance to bet on a rigged coin sounds like a good one. Alas, a paper by two fund managers, Victor Haghani of Elm Partners (and co-founder of the collapsed Long-Term Capital Management) and Rich Dewey of Pimco, shows that it is possible to get even that wrong.
The paper invited 61 people, a combination of college-age students in finance and economics and some young professionals at finance firms (including 14 who worked for fund managers), to take a test. They were each given a stake of $25 and then asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. The prizes were real, although capped at $250.
Remarkably, 28% of the participants went bust, and the average payout was just $91. Only 21% of the participants reached the maximum. 18 of the 61 participants bet everything on one toss, while two-thirds gambled on tails at some stage in the experiment. Neither approach is in the least bit optimal.
Apparently the right strategy is to use the Kelly criterion, named after a…Continue reading
RFIDs are set almost to eliminate lost luggage
HAVING bags go astray on a flight is rare but infuriating. Indeed, according to a study by Skytrax, lost luggage was passengers’ number one complaint last year, beating even flight delays and cramped seats. That frustration could become rarer still. The aviation industry is increasingly using radio frequency identification devices (RFIDs, pictured) to track bags. Airlines have begun to attach these RFIDs to luggage tags. Doing so could significantly reduce the number of bags that are mishandled.
Research by SITA, an IT firm, and the International Air Transport Association, an industry association, found that a widespread adoption of RFIDs could allow 99% of bags to be tracked successfully. Already, other new technologies have cut the number of mishandled bags in half since 2007. RFIDs could reduce that number by a further 25% over the next six years, even as volume continues to increase.
Currently, as the Los Angeles…Continue reading
Los ‘cinco sabios’ de Alemania dicen que la política de Draghi pone en peligro la Unión Monetaria
El consejo asesor del Gobierno alemán para asuntos económicos, «los cinco sabios», tachan de desproporcionada en su último informe la política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y alegan que mina la estabilidad financiera de la eurozona. Leer
Thomson Reuters despedirá a 2.000 empleados en todo el mundo
La compañía precisa que el proceso de reestructuración no afectará a la redacción de la agencia de noticias
There are better and worse arguments for keeping interest rates low
With the Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates in December, my colleague R.A. argues that:
Fed members argue that they are choosing to raise rates now, before inflation has returned to target, so that inflation will not jump above 2%, forcing them to raise rates in a much more rapid manner. If the choice is between above target inflation and a recession, the Fed will take the latter. They are prepared to risk keeping inflation from ever getting to target in the first place (and also a recession) by raising rates with inflation below 2%…
and that:
…recent experience has probably distorted central bankers’ perspective, and made them excessively quick to see inflation in the data and react to it
His criticism of the Fed combines multiple lines of argument. One is that central bankers are too keen to spot inflation in the data. That is probably…Continue reading
Ortega cobrará en 2016 1.108 millones de euros en dividendos
Amancio Ortega, fundador de Inditex, cerrará 2016 con unos ingresos de 1.108 millones de euros en concepto de dividendos procedentes de su imperio textil. La cifra es similar a lo que lleva invertido Ortega en ‘ladrillo’ a lo largo del año. Leer
Amancio Ortega cobra esta semana 554 millones en dividendos
El fundador y dueño del 59,3% de Inditex recibirá el segundo pago de los 1.104 millones que se embolsará este año por este concepto
El Corte Inglés contratará a 8.500 personas para la campaña de Navidad
El grupo que dirige Dimas Gimeno espera mejorar las cifras de ventas del año pasado
Japón asume que no logrará su objetivo de inflación a corto plazo
El Banco central nipón pospone por quinta vez y hasta 2019 su meta de que los precios aumenten alrededor del 2%
Las empresas se preparan para la explosión definitiva del ‘Black Friday’
Multinacionales y pymes acumulan ‘stock’ para la jornada en España de ofertas importada de Estados Unidos