
“WHAT’S the model? Have cake and eat it.” So read handwritten notes, snapped in the hands of an official of Britain’s ruling Conservative Party, as she left a meeting in Downing Street on Brexit strategy in late November. Britons seem keen to pick and choose from a menu of ties with Europe—in particular, to retain access to the single market while gaining more control over migration. Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, is unwavering. In a speech in Berlin on December 6th she reiterated that Europe’s “four freedoms” are inseparable and inviolable. Countries hoping to share in the free movement of goods, services and capital must accept the free movement of labour as well.
The European project was meant above all to be a process of economic integration (intended, in the words of the Schuman declaration in 1950, “to make war [within Europe] not merely unthinkable but materially impossible”). Dissatisfaction with the EU often boils down to the suspicion that its original mission of economic integration has morphed into a misguided push for political union. Which one of these agendas does the free movement of people…Continue reading

THE response of bond, stock and currency markets to the result of Italy’s referendum, and the resignation of its prime minister, Matteo Renzi, was a jaw-breaking yawn. The euro fell a bit against the dollar, and then rallied. The yield on Italy’s ten-year bonds ticked up a few basis points and then fell to 1.89%. The markets had expected a No vote and priced it in, is one view. The calm probably also owed much to a belief that the European Central Bank (ECB) would act to stem any panic.
As The Economist went to press, the ECB’s governing council was widely expected to extend its monthly purchases of government and other bonds (“quantitative easing”, or QE) beyond March 2017. These purchases (which began at a monthly rate of €60bn and then increased to €80bn), plus the ECB’s myriad schemes to provide long-term liquidity to banks, have worked like a charm. Financing costs in the euro zone’s periphery have converged on those of core countries (see chart). All governments, apart from Greece, can borrow in bond markets at tolerable rates. A nagging worry is that the ECB cannot keep up this support…Continue reading

MARIO DRAGHI has shown a remarkable ability to find a way out of tight spots since he became boss of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2011. Has he done so again? At its regular monetary-policy meeting, on December 8th, the ECB’s governing council decided to extend its programme of quantitative easing, or QE, by a further nine months to December 2017. It also said it would reduce the monthly pace of bond-buying from €80bn to €60bn from April. But the ECB has given itself the option of stepping up the pace of bond-buying again, should markets become choppy. As the ECB’s prepared statement puts it: “if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment of the path of inflation.”
The ECB has attempted a difficult trick. On the one hand, a firm signal that the bank would start to “taper” its bond purchases ran the risk of unsettling financial markets, which had been largely unmoved by the No vote in Italy’s referendum, on December 4th. On the other hand, if the ECB were to keep buying bonds at a rate of €80bn a month, it would eventually run up against some self-imposed limits—namely, that it should not buy more than…Continue reading
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